Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

The NBA Playoffs, where "Garnett and Gatorade.. again.." happens

A one-for-two effort for the conference finals. Could have been better, could have been worse, haha. My team, the Spurs, is gone, and now I have to put up with some of the most out-of-control over-the-top gushing from Laker fans and the media that I've ever seen. Patience is a virtue.

The Celtics have apparently rediscovered how to win on the road. From the start it was a mystery to me why they suddenly couldn't win on the road. In fact, it's a mystery why anyone has trouble playing on the road. Are professional athlete's the most mentally fragile individuals alive? Think about it - their play is dramatically affected by whether or not there are a bunch of people standing around them cheering for them. The knowledge that their fans exist somewhere is not enough - the crowd must be right on top of them. Good thing this isn't the pattern for all other professional jobs: "Sorry, boss, I totally crumbled at the end of my presentation because I didn't feel comfortable being away from my office. Next time send some of my co-workers with me for emotional support."

I've never seen the media miss the ball so entirely as during the Lakers/Spurs series. First, they went with the Lakers because the Spurs were "too old." Well, the oldest players on the Spurs actually played quite well. Brent Barry - 23 points in one of the games and an all-around solid performance for the series. The key to the entire series - the single reason the Spurs lost - was the disappearance of Manu Ginobili. And please don't hand all the credit on a silver platter over to the Lakers defense. It was decent, but nothing Ginobili hadn't encountered and had success against numerous times before. Obviously, his ankle was giving him some trouble - in game 5 Doug Collins pointed out how he was losing his balance and had no lift around the basket. Think about it. There were three games that could have gone either way, and each occurred without any contribution from Ginobili. If he had done anything, the Spurs probably win at least one or two and possibly all of those games. Their problem the whole series was they went cold during crunch time. And who on the Spurs has the role of creating a shot and coming up with a clutch basket in crunch time? No thanks to any of the media for asking. Answer: Manu Ginobili. This series was significantly closer than the media portrayed it.

Now, everyone is falling over each other to hand the championship to the Lakers, without a second thought. But stop and think. You do have to give the coaching nod to Phil Jackson. But on the floor, what advantage do the Lakers have besides Kobe? LA had enough trouble with the Spurs setup of an injured Ginobili and a bunch of spot-up shooters. What about a Pierce/revived Allen combination? Kevin Garnett will probably command a double-team, freeing up Boston's array of shooters - Pierce, Allen, Posey, House, possibly Cassell, and even Rondo recently. You can forget about the rebounding edge that the Lakers had against the Spurs - Garnett, Perkins, Powe, Davis, etc. will do a much better job on the boards than the Spurs bigs did. Gasol will look like a giant bowling pin half the time. So what if the Lakers haven't lost a game at home in the playoffs - they almost lost twice at home to a suffering Spurs team, having to overcome huge deficits both times. Boston has home-court advantage and they've been terrific at home, not to mention the fact they seem to have recovered the ability that made them the best road team in the NBA. Make it two wins at the Palace, one of the toughest places to play all year.

All things considered, I'll take the Celtics in 6.

Reasons I want the Lakers to lose:

1. The Gasol heist. What's next - are the Lakers going to offer Ira Newble, a couple of the Laker girls, and Mitch Kupchak's half-eaten lunch to the Hornets for David West?
2. Laker punks. Has anyone instigated more bad blood this year than Sasha Vujacic? It seems like every other game he's almost getting in a fight with someone. And who names themselves "The Machine?" A tool, plain and simple. Kobe has a dual personality. One is his intensely competitive side. The other is his big baby, whiny, show-off side.
3. Loud-mouth Laker fans that suddenly emerge to announce to the world how they feel.
4. The media would be brought back to earth
5. Three classy, hard-working players win a championship: Garnett, Allen, and Pierce.

Final thought: how many incredibly mindless/obvious/cliched things will Mark Jackson say before ESPN/ABC gives him the boot? Someone nailed it the other day - it's like listening to an announcer from an NBA video game. Get this - the circus show Knicks were thinking about offering him the head coaching position. How perfect would that have been?

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The NBA Playoffs, where "Laker fans coming out of the woodwork" happens

Fresh off calling a perfect second round, I move on the conference finals. Thank you very little to the hoards of New Orleans bandwagoners who said the Spurs were too old to compete anymore.

Now comes some of the better conference finals matchups that have happened in a while.

Lakers vs. Spurs

Before the series started, I called that it would be a 7-game series. Here's where my Spurs bias may get me. In game 7 I have to give the edge to the Lakers, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Spurs rise to the challenge yet again. After game 4 it looks dismal. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go 7 games. What surprises me about the series so far is that the Spurs have lost both close games. I would have expected at least a split in that area.

For the Lakers, I was expecting Kobe to defer more than he tried to take over - probably averaging less than 30 points per game for the series. That looks good so far. Pau Gasol is weak and there is no surprise he's having trouble with Tim Duncan. People are finally starting to realize what I've said all along: Lamar Odom is not a winner - he is a stat-monger, very similar to Jason Kidd in those regards. Sure, he did well in clutch in game 4, but most of it was thrown at his feet. Luke Walton incidentally happens to be the best bad player in the NBA. All he does is occasionally make a great pass and occasionally knock down a wide-open shot that he gets because other better players are being double-teamed. Thank you, Luke Walton. Cash this for millions.

The question for the Spurs is a) whether their role players can provide enough support and b) whether they can avoid their habitual scoring drouts. Michael Finley and Brent Barry have to step up, which Barry has - he almost made up for Ginobili's mail in for game 4. Thankfully Popovich has recently figured out that Jacque Vaughn is the bane of the Spurs second-string offense and starting playin Barry instead. Tim Duncan owns Pau Gasol, and I'm surprised that the Spurs haven't tried to exploit that more than they have to this point. Incidentally I would just like to mention that I called Ginobili going off in game 3 (while everyone else was doubting) and Parker and Duncan in game 4. Much good it was for game 4, thanks mainly to Ginobili's disappearance. For some reason he just has a lot of trouble if it's not either a huge game and/or a home game. Being that game 4 was a critical home game makes his no-show even all the more surprising. Attribute it either to his bum ankle or to a prime defensive effort from the Lakers.

Game 4 was simply an all-around choke-city performance from the Spurs - no one could hit a clutch basket. I don't think I've ever seen Duncan miss so many critical shots. Unfortunate contraversial no-call at the end. But all things considered, game 7 is still very likely. The key for the Spurs will be getting big shots to put a stop to any Laker momentum any time it starts. Expect Duncan and Ginobili to step it up in the elimination games. On the other side, this is a great chance for Kobe to build his legacy - does he have what it take to close out the champs at the first opporunity?

Celtics vs. Pistons

Judging from all of the ridiculously poor outings from the Celtics and a lack of impressive outings by the Pistons, expect that yet again the Western Conference Finals are the NBA Finals.

The Celtics will win in 7, simply because they have their precious home court advantage. Bill Simmons made an excellent point the other day about Kevin Garnett. Garnett has trouble playing big in big games because he's always so intense. This prevents him from taking it to another level in the clutch. Ray Allen has become the second coming of the Invisible Man. Cassell looks like he's finally run out of gas. Pierce has already used up his token monster game. Still, they have the best fans in the game, so they'll ride that out.

The Pistons are on the verge of being good enough to win, but don't expect them to climb over the hump. Only Richard Hamilton is playing consistently well for them. Billups has been mostly ineffective since his injury, which really hurts them, despite the recent boost from Stuckey. When Antonio McDyess has the best line on your team, you know something's wrong.

Everyone wants to see Lakers/Celtics, and I don't blame them. But wouldn't it be funny if after all the hype it ended up Spurs/Pistons and every game scored in the 80's? Would David Stern lose his mind? Or what if an underdog Pistons team beat the Lakers for the second time in 4 years? Would Kobe Bryant lose his mind?

What if Stephen A. Smith got fired? Would anyone lose their mind besides Stephen A. Smith?

Coming up next: Some recent interesting sports betting experiences, and maybe a top 10 list...

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

The NBA playoffs, where "weeding out the 'soft gene'" happens

Why do I pick NBA playoff matchups, you might ask? Allow me to take you to the gas station scene from No Country For Old Men. Picture villain Anton Chigurh as he presents his coin: "You stand to win everything. Call it." With the NBA playoffs, I stand to win everything. I call it.

A 7-1 record in calling first round series (assuming Boston win tomorrow, which they will, handily). Thank you, thank you very much. Gilbert Arenas, you cost me perfection. You have been the bane of my involvement with the NBA this season every since I made you my fantasy league first round draft pick. Terrible choice, in retrospect, but I still managed runner-up, in spite of you.

Round 2 will have entertaining but predictable matchups. In actuality there was more uncertainty in Round 1 than there is for Round 2. Here's how it unfolds (incidentally, this was written before any of these games took place)...

People just don't seem to realize that the Spurs have a higher gear that is reserved for the postseason. You can't judge how well they are going to do based on their regular season, because you haven't seen them at their best. Consequently, the decision seems to be split down the middle regarding the Spurs/Hornets series. Allow me to straighten out all you misled minions.

Chris Paul will put up good but not great numbers for the series, because the Spurs defense is too solid. With Tony Parker playing the way he is now, the point guard matchup will essentially be a wash. Two matchups put the Spurs over the top. Matchup 1: Tim Duncan vs. David West. It should take you about 0.2 seconds to make a choice between the two. The difference will be noticed between All-Star and Hall-of-Famer before it's all said and done. Matchup 2: Manu Ginobili vs. any Hornet. Expect Ginobili to average between 25 and 30 a game with around 7 free-throw attempts per game. The Hornets' bigs are not good enough shot blockers to throw him off either. Don't count on Peja - he will have a generally poor series, probably erupting in one maybe two of the Hornets' home games. And Mo-Pete is too washed up. If the Hornets are going to win on the road in this series, they must have significant contributions from Bonzi Wells and Julian Wright. Incidentally, Bonzi probably has the best chance to D-up Ginobili.

The Spurs will win in six games or less. The only thing that keeps it from being five is that the Hornets have home court advantage. Here are the two ways it could play out: scenario 1) a split in the first two games in New Orleans, the Spurs take 3 and 4 at home, New Orleans gets game 5 for a little respect, and then the Spurs close them out at home in game 6; scenario 2: the a split for games 1 and 2 and games 3 and 4, before the Spurs win the last two. I'M CALLING IT.

Detroit and Orlando unfortunately is an easily foregone conclusion. Orlando needed home court for this series, and even that wouldn't have been enough. Detroit fooled around with Philly, but the sleeping giant should be awake enough by this point. I expect Detroit to win in five. Sorry Orlando, Rashard Lewis is not a franchise player that you treated him to be. He'll make you second-round material, and that's about it. Dwight Howard will have a few big games. *Yawn*. Here's what will have to happen if Orlando is going to have a chance: Turkoglu, Evans/Bogans, and Nelson must combine for 60+ points three times. Will that happen? Not a chance. I'M CALLING IT.

Game 7 between Boston and Atlanta. Anyone who thinks Atlanta has any kind of chance is on crack. Sorry all you slipper-wearing hopefuls. Expect Boston to get up by ~15 early, keep it that way until late third, Atlanta make a small run, and then Boston finish them off. I'M CALLING IT.

Boston/Cleveland: Some people think that Boston will have a lot trouble with Lebron, based on the trouble they had with Joe Johnson. There is something to that, but not enough. Atlanta matched up better against Boston because they had a number of young and sprung athletes like Josh Smith and Marvin Williams. Cleveland has Lebron and not much else. Lebron could average 40-15-10 and it wouldn't matter. Garnett will get his because he always does. If Cleveland had trouble with Stevenson, Mason, and an injured Arenas, you can bet that Pierce, Allen, and Posey will have at least their fair share. Cassell will school any of the Cleveland point guards. Bad news if Doc Rivers decides to employ the hack-a-Ben Wallace - Wallace is an energy rebounder/defender that Cleveland needs in order to contend with the likes of Garnett, Perkins, and Powe. Boston in 6, which is still showing mad respect for Lebron. I'M CALLING IT.

LA/Utah: One word sums up this series: Kobe. Utah has no one who can guard him. Kirilenko? Too weak. Ronnie Brewer? Too inexperienced. Korver? Ha. Deron Williams? They need his energy on the offensive end, and he's not the Energizer Bunny. Here's another problem for Utah: LA has the perfect lockdown defender for Williams in the feisty Sasha Vujacic. Significantly, Williams loses his height advantage in that matchup, with Vujacic being 6'7". Fisher is not a bad defender, either. Only chance for Utah - Williams and Boozer combine for 65+ three times. Sorry, not happening. Lakers in 6. I'M CALLING IT.

Coming up next: the top 10 moments of the first round...

Thursday, May 1, 2008

The NBA playoffs, where caring happens, unless you're Carmelo

Or, perhaps, "The NBA playoffs, where 'J.R. Smith's thugs are waiting for you in the parking lot' happens."

The LA/Denver series could have ended up being the most entertaining, if only based on the number of eccentric personalities involved - Kobe, Vujacic, Iverson, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, and Carmelo at times. It's like playing with dynamite. Here are the four things that at the beginning I said had to happen for the Nuggets to have a chance. Needless to say, none of them came even close to happening, and now the Nuggets are back home researching the latest hard tattoos.

1. J.R. Smith must play the ENTIRE GAME. He could be one of the top 10 guards in the league with proper coaching. George Karl is simply an idiot.

2. Nene must play at least 20 minutes a game. Go ahead and let the long hair fool you - Gasol is a girl and definitely doesn't appreciate anyone bodying him up. Nene's physical defense could disrupt the finesse game that he loves so much.

3. Iverson must show some unparalleled leadership and motivate the rest of his team both by example and by getting right in their face when necessary. The Nuggets could very well be the most listless team in the NBA. Sometimes I think they let others teams score just so that they can get the ball back faster. They just sit around while the other team parades all day to the basket. Here's the newest show for ABC: The Stiffs, staring the entire Nuggets team. In the first episode, their house burns down on top of them while they all sit around and admire each other's tattoos.

4. Carmelo must give a rip. He's potentially the best player on the Nuggets, except when he's jacking around, which is his default mode of action. I think over the course of the series he averaged five missed layups a game. Someone said he looks like he's high when he plays. I'm 99% percent sure that he's not high - there's actually a reasonable chance.

bonus: 5. George Karl must be fired. He commands no respect. It sounds in the huddle like he's afraid that one of the players will slap him across the face and force him to get a ghetto tattoo at knife point.

And what happened? Smith dominated on the offensive end from 3's to taking it to the rack seemingly whenever he wanted (on defense wasn't much different than the rest of the team), but then would disappear from the rotation for almost an entire quarter. KMart seemed to be the only player besides J.R. Smith who cared somewhat. By the way, I wonder how he feels about having his nickname be the same as a troubled department store chain that sold Martha Stewart merchandise. Doesn't that put a sizable dent in his street cred? Iverson was like Gollum from Lord of the Rings. He just kind of lurked in the shadows, you knew he had all kinds of potential, but in the end he never put anything significant together and passed away. Nene was a ghost, and Gasol did whatever he wanted. Judging by how easy it was for Gasol, I'd wager that he could have ridden a skateboard down the lane and scored. That's how untouched he was during the series. Carmelo is becoming the new tin man of the NBA, rivaling Vince Carter - neither apparently have any heart.

Coming next: Top 10 moments of the playoffs so far...

Monday, April 28, 2008

The NBA playoffs, where "Tim Duncan for 3" happens

Most sports analysis from the media only informs you what the average opinion is, which is commonly wrong. This occurs all the time during the NBA playoffs. To compound that the viewer is tormented with the likes of Stephen A. Smith, who has vehemently aligned himself with both sides of almost every controversial issue, Stuart Scott, who thinks he is God's gift to sports broadcasting, and so on. My analysis goes beyond the mundane garbage fed to you by the media who's goal seems to be to dumb down sports fans everywhere. I offer hope that intelligence still remains.

Here's what I've called so far most of which the media would have laughed at me for saying:

1. San Antonio will win in 6 games or less. They are now up 3-1, thanks to the league of clutch commish himself, Tim Duncan. Almost everyone tripped all over each other jumping on the Pho-town bandwagon. No respect. When was the last time the Spurs lost four out of seven games?? Hello?? They're been "too old" for three years now - when will people get it?? Also, the Spurs coasted into the playoffs, while Phoenix had to play their best basketball to get in. Further, I called that Tony Parker would make Steve Nash look like a poor slow white boy. How about a career high 41 points for my boy Parker? Game 2 I said that the Spurs would eventually pull away late third, early/mid fourth. Game 3 I said it would take a monumental performance by Duncan for the Spurs to win. Turned out to be Parker - same difference. Game 4 I said the Suns would probably win big. All accurate. Sports betting? Give me a call. Kurt Thomas was a playoff pickup as I said from the start - look at his role/minutes increase. Stepping up against his former team. And before it's all said and done, expect Brent Barry to make a significant impact. He's already shown signs.

2. New Orleans over Dallas in 6 or less. They're now up 3-1. For some reason, everyone got starstruck by Dallas and misled by their late season run. WRONG. New Orleans is the better team. Even if New Orleans wasn't the better team, they still have the best player, which is usually good enough (case in point: DWade vs. Dallas in the '06 Finals). Jason Kidd is not a winner. I've said that ever since the trade went down. He's a stat monger who will run the fast break and throw some nice alley oops. Nice punk move tonight nearly destroying Jannero Pargo's face. Dirk's street cred is fleeing away in all directions. Cuban is jawing with fans. Someone do the Heimlich on Josh Howard. The Dallas Mavericks are a train wreck.

3. I said from the beginning that if anyone is going to pull off an upset, it will be Philadelphia over Detroit. Notice how the Sixers won the season series - they can match up. They've been one of the hottest teams since the all-star break. Sure enough, series tied 2-2, though most predicted one win at most for the Sixers.

4. I did think Washington would beat Cleveland. Looks bad for Washington. I expected the slew of Wiz shooters (Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Stevenson, Mason, etc.) to be enough to offset Lebron. Game 1 boiled down to who was clutch, Arenas or Lebron, and Lebron was. So much for Arenas' self-proclaimed status as the #1 clutch player in the league. He did better in Game 4, but still not enough. Bad coaching by Eddie Jordan. I thought at one point it was against the gameplan to shoot inside 17 feet. Plus he should have done a hack-a-Ben Wallace, who might be the worst free-throw shooter in the playoffs. But I will say this: you will not see Lebron dominating the East en route to the Finals this year.

Houston, Atlanta, and Toronto don't have a chance. But who disagrees - moot point. Toronto may make things interesting, but without home court advantage they cannot beat Orlando four times.

Coming next: the wonderful mess of LA vs. Denver...