Fresh off calling a perfect second round, I move on the conference finals. Thank you very little to the hoards of New Orleans bandwagoners who said the Spurs were too old to compete anymore.
Now comes some of the better conference finals matchups that have happened in a while.
Lakers vs. Spurs
Before the series started, I called that it would be a 7-game series. Here's where my Spurs bias may get me. In game 7 I have to give the edge to the Lakers, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Spurs rise to the challenge yet again. After game 4 it looks dismal. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go 7 games. What surprises me about the series so far is that the Spurs have lost both close games. I would have expected at least a split in that area.
For the Lakers, I was expecting Kobe to defer more than he tried to take over - probably averaging less than 30 points per game for the series. That looks good so far. Pau Gasol is weak and there is no surprise he's having trouble with Tim Duncan. People are finally starting to realize what I've said all along: Lamar Odom is not a winner - he is a stat-monger, very similar to Jason Kidd in those regards. Sure, he did well in clutch in game 4, but most of it was thrown at his feet. Luke Walton incidentally happens to be the best bad player in the NBA. All he does is occasionally make a great pass and occasionally knock down a wide-open shot that he gets because other better players are being double-teamed. Thank you, Luke Walton. Cash this for millions.
The question for the Spurs is a) whether their role players can provide enough support and b) whether they can avoid their habitual scoring drouts. Michael Finley and Brent Barry have to step up, which Barry has - he almost made up for Ginobili's mail in for game 4. Thankfully Popovich has recently figured out that Jacque Vaughn is the bane of the Spurs second-string offense and starting playin Barry instead. Tim Duncan owns Pau Gasol, and I'm surprised that the Spurs haven't tried to exploit that more than they have to this point. Incidentally I would just like to mention that I called Ginobili going off in game 3 (while everyone else was doubting) and Parker and Duncan in game 4. Much good it was for game 4, thanks mainly to Ginobili's disappearance. For some reason he just has a lot of trouble if it's not either a huge game and/or a home game. Being that game 4 was a critical home game makes his no-show even all the more surprising. Attribute it either to his bum ankle or to a prime defensive effort from the Lakers.
Game 4 was simply an all-around choke-city performance from the Spurs - no one could hit a clutch basket. I don't think I've ever seen Duncan miss so many critical shots. Unfortunate contraversial no-call at the end. But all things considered, game 7 is still very likely. The key for the Spurs will be getting big shots to put a stop to any Laker momentum any time it starts. Expect Duncan and Ginobili to step it up in the elimination games. On the other side, this is a great chance for Kobe to build his legacy - does he have what it take to close out the champs at the first opporunity?
Celtics vs. Pistons
Judging from all of the ridiculously poor outings from the Celtics and a lack of impressive outings by the Pistons, expect that yet again the Western Conference Finals are the NBA Finals.
The Celtics will win in 7, simply because they have their precious home court advantage. Bill Simmons made an excellent point the other day about Kevin Garnett. Garnett has trouble playing big in big games because he's always so intense. This prevents him from taking it to another level in the clutch. Ray Allen has become the second coming of the Invisible Man. Cassell looks like he's finally run out of gas. Pierce has already used up his token monster game. Still, they have the best fans in the game, so they'll ride that out.
The Pistons are on the verge of being good enough to win, but don't expect them to climb over the hump. Only Richard Hamilton is playing consistently well for them. Billups has been mostly ineffective since his injury, which really hurts them, despite the recent boost from Stuckey. When Antonio McDyess has the best line on your team, you know something's wrong.
Everyone wants to see Lakers/Celtics, and I don't blame them. But wouldn't it be funny if after all the hype it ended up Spurs/Pistons and every game scored in the 80's? Would David Stern lose his mind? Or what if an underdog Pistons team beat the Lakers for the second time in 4 years? Would Kobe Bryant lose his mind?
What if Stephen A. Smith got fired? Would anyone lose their mind besides Stephen A. Smith?
Coming up next: Some recent interesting sports betting experiences, and maybe a top 10 list...
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