Why do I pick NBA playoff matchups, you might ask? Allow me to take you to the gas station scene from No Country For Old Men. Picture villain Anton Chigurh as he presents his coin: "You stand to win everything. Call it." With the NBA playoffs, I stand to win everything. I call it.
A 7-1 record in calling first round series (assuming Boston win tomorrow, which they will, handily). Thank you, thank you very much. Gilbert Arenas, you cost me perfection. You have been the bane of my involvement with the NBA this season every since I made you my fantasy league first round draft pick. Terrible choice, in retrospect, but I still managed runner-up, in spite of you.
Round 2 will have entertaining but predictable matchups. In actuality there was more uncertainty in Round 1 than there is for Round 2. Here's how it unfolds (incidentally, this was written before any of these games took place)...
People just don't seem to realize that the Spurs have a higher gear that is reserved for the postseason. You can't judge how well they are going to do based on their regular season, because you haven't seen them at their best. Consequently, the decision seems to be split down the middle regarding the Spurs/Hornets series. Allow me to straighten out all you misled minions.
Chris Paul will put up good but not great numbers for the series, because the Spurs defense is too solid. With Tony Parker playing the way he is now, the point guard matchup will essentially be a wash. Two matchups put the Spurs over the top. Matchup 1: Tim Duncan vs. David West. It should take you about 0.2 seconds to make a choice between the two. The difference will be noticed between All-Star and Hall-of-Famer before it's all said and done. Matchup 2: Manu Ginobili vs. any Hornet. Expect Ginobili to average between 25 and 30 a game with around 7 free-throw attempts per game. The Hornets' bigs are not good enough shot blockers to throw him off either. Don't count on Peja - he will have a generally poor series, probably erupting in one maybe two of the Hornets' home games. And Mo-Pete is too washed up. If the Hornets are going to win on the road in this series, they must have significant contributions from Bonzi Wells and Julian Wright. Incidentally, Bonzi probably has the best chance to D-up Ginobili.
The Spurs will win in six games or less. The only thing that keeps it from being five is that the Hornets have home court advantage. Here are the two ways it could play out: scenario 1) a split in the first two games in New Orleans, the Spurs take 3 and 4 at home, New Orleans gets game 5 for a little respect, and then the Spurs close them out at home in game 6; scenario 2: the a split for games 1 and 2 and games 3 and 4, before the Spurs win the last two. I'M CALLING IT.
Detroit and Orlando unfortunately is an easily foregone conclusion. Orlando needed home court for this series, and even that wouldn't have been enough. Detroit fooled around with Philly, but the sleeping giant should be awake enough by this point. I expect Detroit to win in five. Sorry Orlando, Rashard Lewis is not a franchise player that you treated him to be. He'll make you second-round material, and that's about it. Dwight Howard will have a few big games. *Yawn*. Here's what will have to happen if Orlando is going to have a chance: Turkoglu, Evans/Bogans, and Nelson must combine for 60+ points three times. Will that happen? Not a chance. I'M CALLING IT.
Game 7 between Boston and Atlanta. Anyone who thinks Atlanta has any kind of chance is on crack. Sorry all you slipper-wearing hopefuls. Expect Boston to get up by ~15 early, keep it that way until late third, Atlanta make a small run, and then Boston finish them off. I'M CALLING IT.
Boston/Cleveland: Some people think that Boston will have a lot trouble with Lebron, based on the trouble they had with Joe Johnson. There is something to that, but not enough. Atlanta matched up better against Boston because they had a number of young and sprung athletes like Josh Smith and Marvin Williams. Cleveland has Lebron and not much else. Lebron could average 40-15-10 and it wouldn't matter. Garnett will get his because he always does. If Cleveland had trouble with Stevenson, Mason, and an injured Arenas, you can bet that Pierce, Allen, and Posey will have at least their fair share. Cassell will school any of the Cleveland point guards. Bad news if Doc Rivers decides to employ the hack-a-Ben Wallace - Wallace is an energy rebounder/defender that Cleveland needs in order to contend with the likes of Garnett, Perkins, and Powe. Boston in 6, which is still showing mad respect for Lebron. I'M CALLING IT.
LA/Utah: One word sums up this series: Kobe. Utah has no one who can guard him. Kirilenko? Too weak. Ronnie Brewer? Too inexperienced. Korver? Ha. Deron Williams? They need his energy on the offensive end, and he's not the Energizer Bunny. Here's another problem for Utah: LA has the perfect lockdown defender for Williams in the feisty Sasha Vujacic. Significantly, Williams loses his height advantage in that matchup, with Vujacic being 6'7". Fisher is not a bad defender, either. Only chance for Utah - Williams and Boozer combine for 65+ three times. Sorry, not happening. Lakers in 6. I'M CALLING IT.
Coming up next: the top 10 moments of the first round...
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